New Research Framework Proposes Trillion-Dollar Valuation Model for Ethereum as a Global Public Good

Report challenges traditional fee-based valuation metrics, arguing Ethereum must be valued like the Internet itself, as essential, neutral infrastructure.

NEW YORK, NY, UNITED STATES — The Ethereum Market Research Center (EMRC) today announced the release of its latest flagship report, “Ethereum as a Public Good Platform: A Trillion-Dollar Public Goods Valuation Framework.” Authored by industry veteran and long-time Ethereum advisor William Mougayar, the report introduces a novel economic lens for valuing “Ethereum-the-System,” moving beyond simplistic market cap analysis to encompass the platform’s role as the trust settlement layer of the digital economy.

For years, analysts have struggled to value Ethereum using traditional corporate metrics such as discounted cash flow or revenue multiples. This new report argues that these frameworks fundamentally misinterpret the asset. By drawing direct parallels to the Internet’s historical development—specifically, protocols such as TCP/IP—the research posits that Ethereum is a “public good” characterized by non-rivalry and non-excludability. As such, its actual value lies not in the fees it extracts, but in the economic flows and “trust surplus” it enables.

“We have been looking at Ethereum through the wrong lens. It is not a company optimized for revenue; it is a public good optimized for trust,” says William Mougayar, author of the report and founder of the Ethereum Market Research Center. “Just as the Internet created trillions in wealth by refusing to capture value at the protocol layer, Ethereum is building a multi-trillion-dollar economy by serving as the neutral, invisible substrate for global settlement.”

The report introduces a three-pronged valuation framework:

– Captured Value (The Financialized Layer): The visible market cap of ETH and related assets.

– Economic Flow (Digital GDP): The trillions in annual value settled via stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenized assets.

– The Trust Surplus (The Invisible Value): The unpriced economic gain created by reducing systemic risk, intermediary costs, and fraud—analogous to the consumer surplus generated by free Internet services like search and email.

By aggregating these layers, the report projects a near-term valuation range for the Ethereum ecosystem of $2–6 trillion, with a long-run potential of $10–20 trillion as it cements its position as the global settlement layer for institutional finance and the onchain economy.

“Ethereum’s true valuation is not the sum of its revenues; it is the sum of the world’s dependence on it,” Mougayar adds. “As institutions, stablecoins, and machine economies increasingly rely on this neutral infrastructure, ETH transforms from a simple digital asset into a store of value backed by societal reliance.”

Key Highlights from the Report:

– The Internet Analogy: A detailed comparison of Ethereum’s Layer 1 to TCP/IP, arguing that public goods are chronically undervalued early in their lifecycles.

– The Trust Surplus Equation: A new formula quantifying the economic value of eliminating third-party verification.

– The ETH Premium: Analysis of how Ethereum’s public utility drives monetary, collateral, and security premiums for the ETH asset.

– Institutional Roadmap: Forward-looking analysis of 2026–2035, predicting Ethereum’s evolution into the “Digital Institution of Institutions”.

About the Author: William Mougayar is a prominent investor, researcher, and author with over 40 years of technology experience. He is the author of The Business Blockchain (Wiley, 2016), a foundational text translated into 10 languages, and the founder of the Token Summit.

About the Ethereum Market Research Center: The Ethereum Market Research Center (EMRC) is dedicated to providing economic analysis and strategic insights into the Ethereum ecosystem, with a focus on its role as the backbone of the new digital economy.

William Mougayar
Ethereum Market Research Center
william@ethmrc.com
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