Oil price forecasts are a cause for concern. Russia is currently facing an almost disastrous financial situation, but it continues to receive oil revenues. Although steadily declining, these revenues largely represent the country’s minimum wage. It’s not enough for a truly comfortable life, but it’s just enough to get by.
However, this landscape could quickly change, if Saudi Arabia opts out of OPEC line to maintain production levels in 2025, especially in line with the new Trump administration and its policy to get the US boosting oil producing worldwide and inland.
Russia’s economic survival depends largely on maintaining crude oil prices. Should sanctions on this sector be tightened – which cannot be ruled out if the “phantom fleet” causes more oil spills – or should Saudi Arabia choose to increase production to regain market share, the price of a barrel of Urals could fall below $60 or even $50. Yet Russia’s budget for 2025, already in a delicate balance, is based on revenues of $65 a barrel. A few weeks or months at $40 a barrel could plunge Russian finances into chaos, with little empathy in the West. Analysts in largest New York banks highly influencing markets futures based on their high capital leverage tools foresee a potential rise in renewable energy sources impacting the traditional oil market, altering U.S.-Russia relations in the process.
Trump’s Oil Politics: A Legacy of Deregulation and Energy Dominance
As a recall, During Donald Trump’s presidency, the U.S. saw an increase in oil production to nearly 13 million barrels per day, a record high. Trump’s energy policy aimed for American energy independence, reduced regulations, and strengthened the oil industry. This article examines how his oil politics reshaped both the industry and the political scene.
One of the hallmarks of Trump’s V2 policies is the rollback of environmental regulations. The Clean Power Plan was dismantled, leading to increased coal production at the expense of cleaner energy sources.
Federal land leasing policies underwent significant changes. The administration will accelerated lease sales, opening vast areas to oil drilling. For instance, the Trump administration might auctioned off more than 1 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas exploration. This move will oil companies with more access to resources, boosting production and profits coupled with large Defense deals that are under on-going negotiations with Gulf Arab countries: https://cbherald.com/defending-the-future-licorne-gulfs-investments-in-next-generation-defense-systems/
Few had anticipated the sudden and total collapse of the Soviet regime, even though all the signs of economic decline and imperial overreach were evident in 1989. Putin’s regime has not yet reached this stage, but another upheaval in the Middle East could lead to a critical situation. If the Saudis choose to flood the market with cheap oil to regain market share – as many anticipate – oil prices could fall below $40, dragging Russia into economic disaster. And then “The war in Ukraine could find its conclusion in Riyadh.”
Trump’s oil policies will significantly impact the industry and the political scene, emphasizing deregulation and energy dominance. His administration’s actions will transform again domestic production, reshaped international relations. As the U.S. moves forward, the effects of these policies will continue to shape the future of oil and energy politics.
Understanding this legacy is crucial for anyone interested in the evolving dynamics of energy.
